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凯发k8现金网直营:专访最新诺奖得主夫妇:中国或成新"马歇尔计划"领导者

2020-05-09 18:47:58 来源: 大师 举报
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专访诺奖得主基德兰德:没必要抵制美联储加息

本文为网易研究局独家稿件,转载请注明来源

·聚焦国际思想市场·解析财经新闻热点·对话国际经济学大师

文/杨泽宇 李肖燕

新冠疫情蔓延对世界各国经济造成冲击,世界经济将如何发展?应该采取哪些应对措施?网易研究局采访了2019年诺贝尔经济学奖得主阿比吉特·班纳吉(Abhijit Banerjee)、埃斯特·迪弗洛(Esther Duflo)。

阿比吉特·班纳吉(Abhijit Banerjee)、埃斯特·迪弗洛(Esther Duflo)

“中国经济增速放缓某种程度上是一种成功的标志”

网易研究局:如何看待中国经济增速放缓及其未来的发展?

班纳吉&迪弗洛:近日,我们的新书《好的经济学》(Good Economics for Hard Times)在中国出版,虽然这本书涵盖了世界经济,但书中有很多我们从中国学习到的经验和教训。也许我们在这本书中给中国读者的最重要的警告是,不要把中国已经经历过的极快的经济增长视为是理所当然的。回溯中国的发展,这点尤为重要。在某种程度上,过去的中国有很多需要追赶别国的地方,因此有很大的增长空间。现在中国比以前更富有了,经济增长也随之将会放缓,这在某种程度上其实也是一种成功的标志,所以中国不需要对经济放缓感到惋惜,重要的是在追求经济增长的过程中不要出现政策错误,而这正是导致日本和美国曾出现问题的原因。

中国很清楚这一点,在新冠疫情暴发之前,就已经在努力推动经济增长放缓下的“新常态”。或许在当前的世界形势下,目标和预期应该被进一步下调,以努力在经济增速较低的情况下维持中国最贫困人口的生活质量。

“现在是避免陷入一场巨大需求危机的时候,美联储的宽松措施是必要的”

网易研究局:如何看待疫情之下世界经济未来的发展?你们所提到的“艰难时期”是不是已经到来?

班纳吉&迪弗洛:当我们用“Hard Times”这个标题时,并没有想到会有这么艰难的时期,即便在新冠疫情暴发之前,世界大部分地区都正在经历着快速且往往令人不安的变革。西方社会还没有准备好如何应对这种情形。这段艰难时期会有多艰难将取决于病毒的扩散和我们是否能够成功研发出疫苗或找到治疗新冠肺炎的方法(如果我们没办法做到这些,我们就必须要学会如何去过完全不同的生活),以及我们短期内能否应对得当,尤其是能否成功让全球和社会保持一体化。

至于病毒是否会给世界带来更多的贫穷,这在很大程度上是取决于世界各国团结一致来帮助最贫穷国家的能力。从我们现在看到的情况来看,值得庆幸的是,在非洲和印度等贫穷国家,疫情似乎没有那么严重。但是,它们的经济状况非常糟糕,如果世界各国不能团结一致提供帮助,这些国家的经济有可能会像滚雪球一样最终演变为一场灾难。坦率地说,在西方对疫情感到震惊的同时,中国有可能成为新“马歇尔计划”的领导者,为非洲各国公民提供收入支持以抵御危机。

美联储的宽松措施以及美国的2万亿美元经济刺激计划是必要的,而且美国政府永远也不用为它所需要的资金买单(因为大家都总是愿意借钱给美国)。我希望其他国家也能明白,现在不是整顿财政的时候,而是尽可能支持本国民众避免陷入一场巨大需求危机的时候。

“对受全球化冲击失业的人来说,换工作非常难”

网易研究局:有人批评你们的观点是反全球化,你们同意吗?随着世界经济下行,是否应该收缩贸易,来减少穷人的损失?

班纳吉&迪弗洛:我们的观点不是反对贸易,而是支持给受到全球化带来冲击的公民更多的帮助。对他们来说,转型非常困难——受到冲击的人们要换工作、迁移并非易事。比如,一旦一家公司过去生产的产品现在转移到中国生产而导致一份原有的工作消失,失业的人就会发现,搬到其他地方来从事这份可能由贸易而创造的工作并不容易。西方社会(尤其是美国)一直对这一问题的警觉不够,所以结果就是,贸易带来的阵痛比原本可能出现的要大得多。但反过来说,如果贸易中断也会造成其它严重的破坏,事实上,疫情之后如果这样做甚至会带来些许危险。

我觉得更大的问题是要确保这些穷人在疫情期间和疫情后有钱花。如果他们能够有钱买到食物,我们对粮食供应链就有充足信心,所以我们需要确保他们的收入。

“我们需要一种更人道的经济学”

网易研究局:你们曾经说过,自2008年金融危机以来,世界已经失去了对经济学家们的信心,为什么这么说?现在,我们需要什么样的经济学?

班纳吉&迪弗洛:经济学家们没有把时间花在解释自己的论证上,而是倾向于把自己的观点说的仿佛像神谕一样,许多自称经济学家的人也只是在捍卫一种特定的意识形态。经济学家应该对自己的推理论证以及如何得出结论的过程更加开诚布公,来恢复人们对经济学家的信任。

我们需要一种更人道的经济学:一种认识到我们的最终目标不是GDP或经济增长,而是人类福祉的经济学;一种认识到人类并不会像机器人一般行事的经济学;一种被数据证伪后,愿意承认这是自己的猜测,并纠正自己的发现的经济学。

ENGLISH VERSION:

By NetEase Economic Research Bureau (NERB), professional international economic think tank in China.

Interview with Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, Laureates of The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2019.

EDITOR: Shark Yang, Li Xiaoyan

NERB: First of all, congratulations on your new book “Good Economics for Hard Times” being published in China. For Chinese readers, what they want to know most is what do you think this book means to China?

Banerjee & Duflo: While the book covers the world economy, there are many lessons in the book that we have learnt from China, and also some lessons FOR China. Perhaps the most important warning we give in the book for Chinese readers, which in retrospect was especially important, is not to take the extremely fast growth rate China has experienced for granted. To some extent there was a lot of catch up China had to do, and therefore a lot of room to grow. Now that the country is richer, growth will be slower. This is to some extent a sign of success, so there is no reason to lament it: the important thing is not to make policy mistakes in the Pursuit of Growth. This is precisely what caused problems in Japan and the US.

The Chinese authorities are well aware of this: even before COVID-19 there was an effort to promote a ‘new normal’ with lower growth rates. Maybe the targets and expectations should be revised even further down in the current world, with an effort to preserve the quality of life of the poorest in China even with lower growth.

NERB: Your book mentioned "hard times", it's an interesting topic and how do you understand it? As the novel coronavirus spreads worldwide, the world markets and economy are suffering a sharp fell. There's a point that "a harder times" is drawing near, even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, do you agree? How do you understand the "hard times" the world is suffering now?

Banerjee & Duflo: We did not have SUCH hard times in mind when we titled on hard times! Even before COVID, much of the world was experiencing a period of rapid and often uncomfortable transformation. And the Western societies in particular were not ready to confront such a situation. How bad it will be will depend both on how the virus behaves and if we manage to find a vaccine or a treatment (if we don't we will have to learn how to live entirely different lives), and also how we manage the short term, in particular whether society manage to keep it together and the world stay integrated.

NERB: Immigration and inequality, globalization and technological disruption, slowing growth and accelerating climate change, your book mentioned some sources of great anxiety across the world, now maybe the novel coronavirus can be a new one, what do you think of the world economy will be during or after the epidemic situation? Will the virus bring the world much more poverty? There are a lot of large scale epidemics in history, how do you evaluate the impact on anti-poverty?

Banerjee & Duflo: It will depend largely on the world's ability to come together and help out the poorest country. From what we can see until now, thankfully the epidemic does not seem to be as bad in the poor countries in Africa and India. But the economic conditions are dire, and they could snowball into a total disaster if the world did not come together to help out. To be honest, with the western world stunned by the epidemics, and looking inward there is a possibility that Chinese becomes the leader of a new "Marshall plan" for Africa, helping them to finance income support for their citizens to weather the crisis.

NERB: Some scholars have read your book and mentioned a point in your book: “In rich countries, the more international trade there is, the greater loss the poor need to suffer." They criticized it’s a view of anti-globalized. Do you agree? With the fell of global economy, should we shrink trade to reduce the loss of the poor?

Banerjee & Duflo: The argument in the book is not against trade, it is in favor of more support to citizens who experience shock, including the shock of globalization. What we show is that transitions are very difficult: people find it hard to change job, to move etc. So once a job vanish because the products your company used to do is now done in China, people don't find it easy to move somewhere else to work in the job that may have been created by trade. Western societies, especially the US, have not been mindful of that difficulty, and as a result trade has been much more painful than it could have been. But conversely, shutting down trade would create other major disruptions. In fact it is a bit danger after the world pandemic.

NERB: Your book also mentioned poverty and inequality. Recently, under the influence of the plague of locusts and epidemic, many countries have banned rice exports. There is a view that the world has fallen into a food crisis. Will it affect the world's poverty alleviation process? What are your opinions?

Banerjee & Duflo: I think the problem will be more to make sure that the poor have money to spend during the pandemic and after. If they can buy food, I am fairly confident the supply chain will follow. So what we need to know is to guarantee an income.

NERB: Your book mentioned the global citizenry have lost their faith in economists since the 2008 financial crisis, why? How did that happen? And how to change the situation?

Banerjee & Duflo: Economists have not taken the time to explain their reasoning. They have tended to pronounce as if they were oracle. Many who call themselves economists also merely defend a particular ideology. We can reinstate trust in economists by being more transparent and open about our reasoning and how we get to our conclusion.

NERB: Based on your new book, what kind of economics do you think we need in this period?

Banerjee & Duflo: We need an economics that is much more humane: an economics that understand that the final objective is not GDP or growth but human welfare. An economics that understand that human beings are not behaving like robots. An economics that acknowledges when it makes guesses, and that is willing to correct its finding if the data proves them wrong.

NERB: The Federal Reserve is committed to use its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy and President Trump signed the bill of US $ 2 trillion economic stimulus plan. What do you think of these measures? In your view, has the economic crisis arrived?

Banerjee & Duflo: Those measures were necessary, and the US government will never need to pay for the money it takes anyway (since everyone is always willing to lend to the US). I hope other countries will also understand that now is not the time for fiscal discipline, but for supporting their population as much as possible to avoid falling into a huge demand crisis.

本文为网易研究局独家稿件,不构成投资决策

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